A research talk at Northwestern University

Last Thursday Serhii Dembitskyi and Olha Burova of the Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine presented selected data from the sociological monitoring survey “Ukrainian Society” at Northwestern University. Given the limited time available (about an hour), the idea was mainly to examine the stability and variability of public opinion through cases (see the slides) in a turbulent historical period, such as the period of Russia's war against Ukraine.

Although the conclusions drawn are largely descriptive, they can be regarded as sketches of a corresponding typology:

First, a number of aspects of public opinion return to their usual state once the population has adapted to the first mobilising effects of the war. Examples here are financial aspirations and attitudes towards how the state functions.

Second, in particular cases the war changes the context of assessment, which leads to changes that are either expected or, on the contrary, not obvious at first glance. Examples are assessments of the economic situation, views of unity and of the important social groups in society, and shifts in ideological preferences(1).

Third, the war can be a catalyst of long-term historical change. Examples are the dynamics of civic identity and the language spoken within the family.

Fourth, the war leaves room for stable dominant states. Views on cynicism in society can be counted among these.

Fifth, natural changes are observed that are connected with exhaustion from a protracted war. Examples are belief in victory, assessments of international assistance and the readiness to endure the hardships of war.

Note:

1. The charts depicting respondents' ideological preferences show the data after the changes had already taken place. The point is that before the full-scale invasion 3–4% subscribed to nationalist views, and afterwards 18–19%. These changes are not shown visually, but they were mentioned during the talk.