They have become critical of the state and radical. Sociologist Golovakha on the effect on Ukrainians of a long war and of the lack of big news from the front
The outlet NV has published an interview with the Director of the Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine, Corresponding Member of the NAS of Ukraine, Professor Yevhen Golovakha, who, on the basis of the Institute's monitoring data, gave what the journalist Olha Dukhnych called «fresh answers» to the editors' questions.
In his interview for NV, Golovakha described what Ukrainian society is becoming in a war of attrition, how its radical attitudes are growing, why it will never normalise the war and why, despite glaring facts of corruption and abuse, Ukrainians assess their society as comparatively more just than before.
Noting that changes in attitudes in Ukrainian society are wave-like in nature, the sociologist observed that compared with 2021 changes have taken place and they are astonishing. First, society has consolidated in many directions – as a fortress under siege consolidates. Second, belief in victory exists and is growing stronger. Third, despite all the difficulties and problems, most Ukrainians believe that things in the country are moving in the right direction.
Over a year and a half of war Ukrainians have not so much grown used to it as adapted to it, the researcher stressed, because we are psychologically more adaptive. We also observe post-adaptive tendencies, in which Ukrainians not only agree to lower their financial expectations and “tighten their belts” but have gradually begun to raise their own material aspirations.
In political terms, the test “Image of the state” established the following: the general positive assessment of the state in Ukrainians' consciousness grew very substantially in 2022, but over the past six months it has worsened. In November only 32% of respondents assessed the functioning of the state in Ukraine positively and 67% negatively, whereas in 2022 almost half (47%) of respondents assessed the state's work positively. And in June 2023 positive assessments amount to only 22% in all, and negative ones to almost 40%.
Golovakha stressed: «My hypothesis is that people have been waiting for positive information about the war with Russia. In their perception the situation has stalled, and Ukrainians do not want the war to be normalised, so they address their demand to the state in this way — let us do something to make the situation better». In ideological terms we record a radicalisation of political consciousness under war conditions – 6% consider themselves liberals and 19% nationalists, which is a historic maximum for us.
As for the term «Orbanisation of Ukraine», which has appeared in the media, what is meant are the attitudes of ressentiment that may appear among Ukrainians if, for instance, we fail to liberate our territories – much as such attitudes are stoked by Orbán in Hungary, nostalgic for the territories his country lost after the Second World War. And here it is up to our state whether it can channel these feelings in a democratic direction — rebuilding the country, feeling part of Europe, making every effort to recover what was lost — or whether we shall take the path of seeing ourselves as the most deceived and therefore chosen to blaze our own autonomous trail, a very difficult and dangerous one. That is why victory matters so much to us.
Golovakha noted: «we studied the three main types of justice characteristic of any society. The utilitarian type — «the best possible life must be secured for as large a part of Ukrainians as possible, even at the cost of worsening the life of a smaller part»; the libertarian type — «whoever managed to secure the best life for themselves should have it»; and the meritocratic type — «creating conditions in which people receive goods and occupy a place in society according to their abilities and achievements». We found that the meritocratic type of justice appeals to Ukrainians and predominates among them, and that compared with September 2019 society has, in citizens' conception, become more just. This is an important step towards people feeling themselves to be responsible citizens in this society. If a person believes society is just, they will work for it sincerely.
With the beginning of the war we got an entirely new society. Beginning with the Euromaidan, the whole path Ukraine has travelled has proved to be a very deep revolution. A revolution leads to a change in the institutional system and to a change in morality and values, to a change in the social structure as a whole. In particular, the large social group of people who fought are beginning to become substantial elements of the main state institutions; they are seen in key state posts. This is a new normative system and it may be — and already is — perceived as more just.
Golovakha stressed: about 70% are to one degree or another psychologically ready for a war of attrition — these are those who believe the war will continue for another year or even more than a year (42% of respondents). Extrapolating, Ukrainians will hold on next year too. For any negotiations mean one thing — capitulation. And people who stood their ground in the most terrible time are not ready to capitulate. That is, Ukrainians will expect either real successes at the front or constant information that we shall receive help from the West, that there will be still more weapons. And that we are gradually advancing. And the second will not lead to a surge of negativity, while the first will produce a great surge of positivity, the head of the Institute concluded.
Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The country's leading sociology research institution, founded in 1990.