How and why Ukrainians’ attitude towards Belarusians changed during the war

The deputy director of the Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine Serhii Dembitskyi commented on the change in Ukrainians’ attitude towards Belarusians that has taken place in recent years. Since the media outlet that requested the comments did not publish them in full, their complete version, translated into Ukrainian, is given below:

"FROM LOVE TO HATRED". WILL UKRAINIANS BE ABLE TO CHANGE THEIR ATTITUDE TOWARDS BELARUSIANS?

How the full-scale war has changed Ukrainians’ attitude towards Belarusians, whether they distinguish between the Belarusian people and the Lukashenka regime, and why he enjoyed such support in Ukraine in all the recent years — these and other questions were put to Serhii Dembitskyi by Kukuorg ahead of the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

BEING A BELARUSIAN IN UKRAINE BEFORE 2022 WAS COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT: THE ATTITUDE TOWARDS BELARUSIANS WITHIN THE COUNTRY WAS THE WARMEST. SUCH OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO CONFIRMED BY SOCIOLOGISTS’ RESEARCH: UP TO AND INCLUDING 2021, OF ALL OTHER ETHNIC GROUPS UKRAINIANS HAD THE HIGHEST SYMPATHY FOR BELARUSIANS (APART, OF COURSE, FROM UKRAINIANS THEMSELVES).

- We have a technique that makes it possible to assess national distance. Its abbreviated version uses 10 national groups, among which are Belarusians. And the attitude towards Belarusians was always the best. In 2000, 32.7% were prepared to admit Belarusians as members of their family, 23.4% as close friends, 14.5% as neighbours. And those who did not admit Belarusians at all amounted to only 1.9%. That is, acceptance was high. – says Serhii Dembitskyi, deputy director of the Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine, Doctor of Sociological Sciences. - The situation changed noticeably in 2002. The main reason for the increase in national distance towards all national groups was the attack on the shopping centres in the USA. However, the best attitude was retained towards Belarusians until 2022.

  - In Ukrainian society before the war there was considerable socio-political negativism, both towards the authorities and towards one’s own state. But when Russia launched its full-scale aggression, the attitude towards one’s own state became much better. Ukrainians at last felt fully the value of their state, understood that it protects them, that it is necessary. The crisis events led to a rapid change in public opinion. At the same time the attitude towards Belarusians changed swiftly, - our interlocutor says. - In 2022 we shortened the questionnaire and removed the questions on interethnic tolerance. So I can rely on data from the Sociological Group “Rating”. Last year there were two measurements: in April and in August. And we see that a warm attitude remained among 22% of those surveyed in April, and already in August among only 10%. Whereas a cold attitude rose to 33% in April and 52% in August. That is, by August an absolute majority of Ukrainians already had a bad attitude towards Belarusians.

The sociologist stresses that a relatively large group remains of those who feel neutral towards Belarusians: at the beginning of 2022 they numbered 42%, and already in August 34%.

- The attitude is worsening. And as long as this war continues, as long as the Lukashenka regime contributes to war crimes, this trend will not change, - Serhii Dembitskyi forecasts.

"HOW TO EXPLAIN THAT THE MAIN PART OF THE POPULATION DOES NOT ACT?"

In his words, the institute’s studies contain no questions on whether Ukrainians distinguish between Lukashenka and Belarusians, but he supposes that there is no such distinction among Ukrainians.

- Do we have grounds to believe that the majority of Belarusians do not support Lukashenka? It was not only the general passivity of the population of Belarus that made its participation in the war against Ukraine possible, but also the assistance of the entire institutional apparatus (the spheres of transport, medicine, the military-industrial complex, various services). The functioning of all these institutions is ensured precisely by ordinary Belarusians. - says the sociologist.

- But a partisan struggle is being waged and those people have staked a great deal. Some of them have already lost their lives.

– I know that there were partisans who derailed trains. I know that these people were detained, I have read about the sentences. We know that a unit of Belarusians is fighting within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I have read interviews with them. But why should we believe that the majority of society shares their views? After all, we assess the population as a whole and not some separate groups within it, – he explains the changes in Ukrainians’ opinions about Belarusians.

"THE IMAGE OF A STRONG LEADER"

Meanwhile Lukashenka himself was for a long time among the leaders in the rating of international politicians – the sociologist explains this by his image of a strong leader, which is often associated with the possibility of solving the chronic problems of post-Soviet society, for example overcoming corruption.

– And while Lukashenka was somewhere far away and his figure as a strong leader was an abstraction, people felt well disposed towards him. But when in Ukraine we encounter not an abstraction but concrete circumstances, the support disappears. In 2018 we had 39.3% who rated Lukashenka highly, 45.6% who gave a medium rating, and only 15.3% who rated him low. Yet already in 2020, when Ukrainians measured this man’s actions against their own experience, the situation changed. The number of those who gave him low ratings rose to 36.4%, medium ratings 33.9% and high ratings – 29.7%. That is, whereas earlier the ratings were mostly medium and high, in 2020 they shifted towards medium and low, - says the sociologist. - Further on the process of rethinking the figure of Lukashenka continued. And already in 2021 the attitude towards him worsened still more, because people finally understood that his rule in Belarus is anti-popular. Thus in 2021, 48.1% of Ukrainians rated him low, 35.9% gave medium ratings and only 16% high ones. That is, as before, there remained people who felt sympathy for Lukashenka as a politician, but the majority had a negative attitude. In the event of war there are grounds to believe that the share of negative assessments may exceed 80%. Indeed, when the war began and the Belarusian state became largely involved in it, the corresponding negative background spread to the attitude towards ordinary Belarusians as well.

EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON EVENTS IN BELARUS ITSELF

Our interlocutor does not venture to forecast what Ukrainians’ attitude will be after victory, stressing that it depends on how the war develops.

Let us consider a positive scenario: in Russia a struggle of elites has begun, a time of troubles, and thanks to this Belarus has come out from under Russia’s influence and the Lukashenka regime has been replaced by democratic forces. Under such a scenario the attitude towards Belarusians will improve far faster than towards Russians. Because I see no preconditions at all for the attitude towards Russians to improve. Decades will pass, possibly no less than a hundred years, and we will remember what happened. As a sociologist I have grounds to believe that anti-Ukrainian sentiment will persist in Russia for a very long time, regardless of how the war ends. They will consider many of our territories, or even the whole territory of Ukraine, their own. I think that Belarusians do not consider it necessary to seize Ukraine, to annex its territories and so on. In this sense a change in the attitude towards Belarusians will come about more easily.

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