Yevhen Golovakha on the Radio Liberty YouTube channel

The Director of the Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine, Doctor of Philosophical Sciences, Corresponding Member of the NAS of Ukraine, Professor Yevhen Golovakha gave an interview to the programme “Radio Liberty”. The journalist Vlasta Lazur asked about the findings of the Institute's research and about the views of the head of Ukrainian academic sociology on pressing questions of the day. She began with questions about the Institute's much-discussed monitoring survey, in particular about Ukrainians' resistance to stress.

Golovakha described this interesting and in a certain sense unique study and summed up its conclusion: despite all the tragic events of the Russian Federation's full-scale invasion, the level of distress among Ukrainians is on the whole no higher (as of the time of the survey, October 2023) than during the highly stressful period of Covid. The additional stress-inducing factors of the war have, strange as it may sound, not substantially raised Ukrainians' level of stress overall. Optimism about the future, by contrast, has grown substantially: before the war, optimists in various years never exceeded 17%, whereas at the peak of optimism in December 2022 they reached as much as 78%. In October 2023 there were, admittedly, somewhat fewer — 62% — but that is still a great many.

The unrealistic media campaign by the press, experts and some politicians, which promised the swift liberation of the occupied territories and the success of the counter-offensive, led on the one hand to more people being disappointed and on the other to Ukrainians assessing the prospects of the war's end more realistically — in a year or even longer. And here a question arises: what is victory in Ukrainians' conception? There is no single understanding; it is dispersed. Since, according to experts' forecasts, after 2026 the economy and the social situation in the Russian Federation are expected to worsen considerably, we need patience and the ability to withstand all the vicissitudes of the war without losing optimism. Our potential for resistance, despite the stress and disappointments, the sociologist observed, is still fairly high.

Ukrainians do not agree to a peace at the cost of losing territory, but the further course of the war will bring new realities and will affect public attitudes. Ukrainians are not prepared to capitulate, but stopping for a certain time is already a more realistic tendency in public opinion. It is another matter on what terms and for how long to stop — but these questions remain open for now. On the question of mobilisation, which is becoming ever more acute, the professor noted that a comprehensive programme must be developed, built on the principles of fairness and clearly setting out every aspect of mobilisation, participation in combat, rewards, bonuses, compensation, demobilisation and so on. The Director of the Institute put forward the idea that sociologists could conduct such a survey, whose findings could form the basis of such a comprehensive programme, and assured his interviewer that his team is fully ready for this in scholarly and methodological terms.

As for the secret of Zaluzhnyi's popularity, the scholar explained that psychologically the current Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces is associated in the minds of many Ukrainians with victories and steadfast resistance at the front. A hero and a political leader, however, are not identical notions. Since presidential elections in Ukraine are not on the agenda today, it is too early to discuss the political chances of the war's heroes. And far from all Ukrainians take an interest in politics (currently a third do), and fewer still are ready for real political participation.

As for Ukrainians who are abroad, the sociologist forecast that at least half of them are likely to return, depending on when the war ends, on the conditions in which they have settled there and on other factors.

The thorough scholarly analysis of the questions and themes put to the head of Ukrainian academic sociology on Radio Liberty testifies to the full scholarly and methodological readiness of the Institute's staff to go on studying Ukrainian society and to give considered, well-grounded recommendations on the development and implementation of relevant programmes to the organs of government and administration.

Watch the video on YouTube