Yevhen Golovakha on Radio Liberty on current affairs

An interview by Radio Liberty with the Director of the Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine, Corresponding Member of the NAS of Ukraine, Doctor of Philosophical Sciences, Professor Yevhen Golovakha has been published on the video platform YouTube.

The journalist Vlasta Lazur asked her guest to give a brief analysis of the past year and a forecast for the year that has just begun. She opened, however, by mentioning the so-called “cardboard” protests by young people, which the professor characterised as confirmation of the thesis that Ukraine is not Russia. Given that corruption is perceived by society as the second most weighty factor threatening the country, the scholar stressed, the authorities' attempt in July to limit the independence of the anti-corruption bodies was judged by the protesters to be unacceptable, a restriction of public opinion. The protests and the authorities' reaction to them confirmed that Ukraine is neither authoritarian nor totalitarian. And Ukrainians deserve respect because they make effective use of the levers of influence on society that belong to a democratic order.

Sociological research shows, the professor observed, that a certain part of society does not accept the current authorities, but at the moment this is a minority, somewhere around 25%. About 20% waver.

Asked by the journalist how the story of the “Mindich tapes” affected society and how far it hit the president's rating, the sociologist replied that at the time it cost him roughly 10–15% of the support of those who were wavering. Later, however, the head of state restored his position to a certain extent: the latest KIIS surveys record a rating of 62% for V. Zelenskyi, which, the sociologist maintains, is a very high figure for Ukrainians, who are traditionally critical of the authorities. By way of comparison, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has 19% support, while the Armed Forces have 90%, which is undoubtedly the result of their four years of heroic struggle.

To assess the survey results of other sociological centres on politicians' ratings or on questions about possible elections, the head of the country's academic sociologists said he would need to know the whole “kitchen” of their research — the sample, the survey method, the size of the margin of error and so on, because all of this affects the results.

In general the scholar stressed that most Ukrainians are against elections during the war but in favour of elections for the presidency and the Verkhovna Rada once it is over, or at least during a prolonged cessation of hostilities. Ukrainians are against dictatorship but want to see a strong leader as president, so it is no accident that the three highest-rated potential candidates, apart from the current head of state, include two combat generals — V. Zaluzhnyi and K. Budanov. General A. Biletskyi is also rising in the ratings, since the share of those who share the position of his political force has grown from 4% before the war to about 20% today. Society is radicalising during the war, though liberal attitudes grounded in the ideas of freedom are also rising, to 10%. The fact that V. Zelenskyi has not yet said whether he will run in the next elections is well founded, since it is not known what the outcome of the war will be and, accordingly, what society's reaction and the electorate's mood will be.

The sociologist also drew attention to the fact that in 2025 the decline in mood and assessments, which had been gradually worsening since 2023, came to a halt, and that this is a positive development. Alongside the stress and exhaustion, which are noticeable but not fatal, Ukrainians' adaptation to the burdens of the war is also apparent, and that is what accounts for the stabilisation of the public mood. People with a high level of stress (distress) currently make up 12%, which is not a small figure, but the fact that the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are not giving ground and believe in the country's future is a sign of their adaptation. The war exhausts, but it has not deprived Ukrainians of their endurance, their resilience or their ability to resist in difficult conditions, and this testifies to the moral strength of the society and the people. That is precisely why most of society is against the kind of peace for which we would have to renounce our territories, temporarily occupied by the enemy, in legal terms. Reality, however, makes it necessary to agree to freezing the war along the front line, provided Ukraine's security is guaranteed.

As for mobilisation, most Ukrainians understand its necessity, but people's attitudes towards the military enlistment offices and their working practices are far more complicated and bound up with each person's own circumstances. To resolve this problem, which still causes a certain tension in society, what is needed, the scholar stresses, is a law on mobilisation that would regulate the whole set of questions systematically, including conscription, the training of those mobilised, financial incentives, rotation, demobilisation, benefits, public recognition and so on.

The post-war period of Ukraine's recovery will, in the scholar's forecast, also bring a number of difficult problems connected with the demographic crisis, with migration processes — the number of those who return from abroad or, conversely, leave in order to reunite with their families — with the reception of foreign labour, with the revival of political life and hence of political confrontation, and so on. And all of this against the background of a tense security and economic situation in the country.

This interview with the head of Ukraine's academic sociology, who, drawing on the research of the staff of the Institute of Sociology he heads and of colleagues, firmly expressed an optimistic view of the country's future, showed that the Institute and the country's sociologists generally keep a finger on the pulse of social processes and, in the difficult conditions of war, are building a serious research basis for the state decisions that need to be taken, while providing invaluable material for scholars and experts around the world who take an interest in Ukraine.

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Watch the video on YouTube