Yevhen Golovakha for a Belarusian opposition outlet

The Belarusian opposition outlet Zerkalo has published an interview with the Director of the Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine, Corresponding Member of the NAS of Ukraine, Doctor of Philosophical Sciences, Professor Yevhen Golovakha, noting that “he helped Belarusians understand how Ukrainians see their country right now”.

The journalist A. Drutskoi asked how Ukrainians conduct sociological research during the war, including in technical terms. The sociologist noted that the face-to-face method had to be abandoned in favour of computer-assisted telephone interviewing, which likewise ensures the reliability of the results obtained. Although there is no persecution by the state for answers given, self-censorship among Ukrainians does, as the professor acknowledged, come into play — by KIIS's estimate, within a range of 5–7%.

As for cooperation with state bodies, the Institute's specialists, the director included, are in contact with them and advise them when asked, but large-scale surveys can be conducted only if sponsorship funding is found, and that is not easy, since a full-scale study costs somewhere around 40,000 US dollars.

Characterising Ukrainians as a whole today by age, sex, income and education — which is what the journalist was interested in — is very difficult. Two factors get in the way: there has been no census for a long time, and there is migration, the mass departure of people from the country because of the full-scale invasion. According to current statistics, however, as of 2021 the average age was 41 and now it is 43; women are more numerous, at 54%. About 40% have a higher education and about 12% an incomplete higher education. So Ukrainians are an educated people.

The number of supporters of peace talks is growing, and the closer to the line of fighting the more of them there are — they feel the hot breath of the front more keenly: in the west of the country 41% are “for” talks and 55% “against”. In the centre 54% are for and 41% against. In the east 66% are for and 25% against; in the south 65% are for and 41% against.

There is a similar trend on the question of territorial concessions: in 2022, 90% were against them; in October 2024, 58%; in December, 51%. Public opinion influences the position of the authorities, which is also softening. The surrender of territory, though, is not on the agenda.

On the question of ratings and possible electoral prospects, in particular those of V. Zelenskyi and V. Zaluzhnyi, the sociologist stressed that this will depend on a number of factors and that by the time of any future presidential elections the situation may change considerably.

As for attitudes towards Belarusians, the professor singled out two factors: trouble came to Ukraine from the direction of Belarus, but on the other hand, unlike Russians, Belarusians did not kill Ukrainians. The present negative attitude towards Belarus and its authorities is therefore understandable. In the future, however, a process of normalising relations, slow though it may be, is possible. According to Natalia Panina's research on social distance in the 1990s, there existed the so-called phenomenon of East Slavic separateness, in which Russians and Belarusians were perceived by Ukrainians as the peoples closest to them. Reviving that will be difficult, but Ukrainians and Belarusians may be able to create a certain chance for themselves after the war.

Asked about the lines of division in Ukraine and the war's effect on them, the professor noted that the war has consolidated Ukraine very noticeably: most Ukrainians are now oriented towards the West and use the Ukrainian language. Even here, though, there are certain waves of ebb and flow connected with the cyclical nature of historical development. Yet Ukrainians' national self-respect and their aspiration to become a European nation have grown considerably.

In closing, the scholar gave a cautious forecast that the fighting might end, on terms of mutual compromise, within a year to eighteen months.

The outlet thanked the head of Ukrainian academic sociology for the opportunity to learn about and better understand the state and the mass attitudes of Ukrainian society.

The material is available here: https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/98692.html