Chapter 1. Sociology of the Expected Future in a Crisis Society: Toward an Adequate Epistemology

Abstract: The section is devoted to the search for an epistemological platform on which the sociology of the future can develop, adequate to the situation of the social crisis observed since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. As an alternative to Western models based on rational choice, the author proposes an epistemology combining critical realism and the complexity paradigm. The crisis unpredictability of systemic changes and their variability are at the center of attention. It is shown that in this case, each social actor must significantly adjust the life strategies of the pre-crisis period. The study highlights three ways of such correction and expands the concept of agent action to include intuitive-volitional impulses that go beyond purely rational choice.