The potential of social tensions and splits in Ukraine in conditions of war: Dynamics and factors

Russian military aggression is structurally changing the active civil society in Ukraine and affecting the potential for social tensions and divisions in Ukrainian society. As a result of the Russian occupation of a number of territories in the South and East of Ukraine, their population is being largely removed from the socio-political space of Ukraine. The numerical ratio of different groups of Ukrainian citizens, socially separated due to different linguistic and geopolitical preferences, is changing. In 2014–2015 and 2021–2024, immediately after radical escalations of Russian aggression against Ukrainians, there was a growing disagreement with the possible increase in the status of the Russian language in Ukraine. In 2024, two social categories with distinct geopolitical preferences were recorded: 71.9% of citizens with Euro-Atlantic orientations and 28.1% of citizens with orientations toward the idea of Ukraine's foreign policy neutrality.

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